'Open' SIMs, brain chips and Google's Nest: What to expect in wireless in 2015

We look at events that will shape the industry this year

OCTOBER

ALU points to ‘Wi-Fi 3.0’ in the US

The use of carrier-grade Wi-Fi has been a major theme of the year, with the strategic use of unlicensed spectrum shifting from mobile data offload to a wider range of business models, some threatening to the MNO. These include the adoption of Wi-Fi-first models by some cablecos, which can use clouds of Wi-Fi homespots and hot-spots to achieve wireless coverage which they control, but without the cost of spectrum or LTE networks.

They can then reduce their reliance on their MVNO deals and compete with the cellcos into the bargain. Such models depend on constant enhancement of WiFi, particularly its ability to behave in a carrier-class way despite the vagaries of licence-exempt bands. Progress has been rapid, and Alcatel-Lucent coined a new buzzword when it started to talk about "Wi-Fi 3.0".

This sees the technology deployed at vast scale – ALU says it has a customer in the US with two million WiFi end points on a single network, as well as 250,000 access points (this is presumably Comcast, the leading cable Wi-Fi provider). Features of Wi-Fi 3.0 are that it works all the time, every time, by adding elements like customer self-activation, customer care and authentication; and that it gets close to the mobile ubiquity of cellular (as well as interworking with cellular).

NOVEMBER

Would Liberty deal hit Vodafone’s Project Spring?

Massive M&A deals have been the theme of the year among Europe’s hard-pressed operators, and also in the US, though plans by Softbank/Sprint, Iliad and Dish to acquire T-Mobile USA have so far come to nothing and the fourth cellco remains defiantly independent, seeking to undermine the others with its Uncarrier initiatives.

In Europe, there has been a string of mobile mergers, including a new German leader created from the combination of O2 and E-Plus. In the UK, fixed-line incumbent aims to up the ante in the quad play wars by acquiring leading cellco EE, and in France two cable-focused groups, Iliad and Altice, are battling it out and sparking price wars in the process. Iliad has launched the disruptive Free Mobile while Altice has acquired the country’s second mobile carrier, SFR, from Vivendi.

The biggest deal of all could be a bid by Vodafone for its arch-rival in the pan-regional fixed/mobile race, Liberty Global. Both have hinted at a possible bid in the near future, which would be a good strategic fit for Vodafone, even if the financing were to prove hard. It could also distract resources and management effort from organic growth efforts, notable the huge Project Spring infrastructure upgrade program, part of a general trend for consolidation to put pressure on capital expenditure (capex) budgets.

A merger with Liberty could see the two companies consolidate their infrastructure plans, reducing the total sum spent on new networks, either fixed or mobile. Vodafone would acquire an extensive fibre/cable asset base in several important markets, and have less need to invest in its own lines. And it would potentially be spending more of its Verizon windfall than originally intended on acquisitions, and so have less left for Project Spring.

DECEMBER

Sub-1GHz auctions will mount up in 2015

If the high frequency bands like 60GHz will be important in 5G, the sub-1GHz spectrum has been at the heart of early 4G. Early movers like Verizon have virtually completed their first, coverage-oriented waves of 4G deployment and are looking to higher capacity bands, but most operators are still in the early stages. The demand for the sub-1GHz licences will not simmer down then, and 2015 will see a new round of major auctions, some of which could attract the same kind of feeding frenzy as the current AWS-3 sale in the US.

In particular, this year’s WRC-15 World Radio Conference will allocate new sets of frequencies for mobile broadband, with key decisions on the 700MHz band likely to spark a wave of auctions in these UHF frequencies in the second half of the decade. Although the EMEA region had its first digital dividend in 800MHz, operators are keen to add 700MHz too.

These auctions will be held in Germany and France late next year, though handover is unlikely to be achieved in full until 2019 or later.

Copyright © 2015, Wireless Watch

Wireless Watch is published by Rethink Research, a London-based IT publishing and consulting firm. This weekly newsletter delivers in-depth analysis and market research of mobile and wireless for business. Subscription details are here.