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Storage snippets slither forth from San Fran analyst shindig

The future's not so bright for mutants

Western Digital is making more than five times as much money from flash than Seagate: $590m/quarter compared to $100m.

This came out at a Stifel Nicolaus Tech, Internet and Media conference held last week in San Francisco, where vendors gave presentations and answered questions.

Other highlights were:

  • Seagate thinks there could be disk media tightness in 2015. Toshiba and Western Digital disagree.
  • Show Denko has begun mass production of 8TB 3.5-inch disk drive platters; 1.1TB-1.3TB/platter. It expects media shipments to grow 3 per cent this year.
  • Toshiba disk:
    • Has a 3-7 per cent HDD share in the high-capacity/cloud space.
    • Wants to increase its high capacity HDD business to 20-25 per cent market share from less than 10 per cent at the end of 2014.
    • Stifel MD Aaron Rakers says this could be difficult as Toshiba lacks the vertical integration enjoyed by Seagate/Western Digital and queries Toshiba's ability to fund such a manufacturing expansion.
    • Says it is the number 2 supplier of flash for SSDs.
  • EMC
    • DSSD rack-scale flash products look like having a launch in the second half of this year.
    • Has reduced its engineering headcount related to its legacy VMAX and VNX platforms.
    • ScaleIO product is for highly-scalable hyper-converged environments (cloud/Cloud Service Provider) above and beyond VMware VSAN capabilities.
    • ScaleIO’s competitive advantage is that it can run on both bare metal and multiple hypervisors, support up to 100 per cent flash, and scale to thousands of nodes, i.e. it addresses a different market than VSAN.
  • SanDisk expects HDD cannibalisation at all levels of the enterprise, including cold storage, by NAND flash.
  • Western Digital
    • Says it has a 45 per cent share of the enterprise SAS SSD market.
    • Expects enterprise SSDs to grow at 25 per cent/year through to 2018, with some cannibalisation of performance enterprise HDDs.
    • Will develop the high-density flash array portfolio it acquired with Skyera.
    • Notebook SSD penetration has remained stable at 15 per cent for past year.
    • 8TB helium HDDs beginning initial shipments with 10TB later in 2015.
  • Toshiba flash
    • Suggested notebook SSD penetration will reach 30 per cent in 2015, up from 24 per cent in 2014.
    • Estimates by 2018 NAND flash will account for 17 per cent of total (HDD + flash) capacity. Stifel thinks flash was around 11 per cent in 2014.
    • Toshiba and WD both expect hybrid HDDs will only have 5 per cent penetration this year.
  • Quantum highlighted strong growth of its scale-out storage products (StorNext), with an expectation of 60-70 per cent growth in its fiscal 2015.
  • Quantum highlighted an 80 per cent win rate in competitive engagements and new/ramping NetApp relationship.
  • PernixData's (VMware in-hypervisor caching) roadmap show it becoming hypervisor-agnostic and adding more intelligence to its technology.
  • Pure Storage
    • CEO Scott Dietzen said EMC is now leading with XtremIO instead of VMAX in competitive engagements.
    • Pure saw 250-300 per cent growth rates during the first three quarters of its January 2015 fiscal year.
    • It's adding synchronous replication capabilities to current asynchronous replication + snapshots.
    • It thinks raw flash can reach parity with 10K/15K rpm performance HDDs over the next 2-3 years.
  • Solidfire saw 200 per cent year-on-year revenue growth in 2014.
  • Tegile’s has seen 600 per cent revenue growth over the last 2 years.
  • Tegile uses 2TB eMLC SSDs now and will offer 4TB SSDs in the March timeframe, possibly/probably HGST products.
  • SuperMicro thinks it can grow to a $3 billion/year revenue in a couple of years.

Gosh, it's all so exciting. Can Seagate catch up with WD/HGST in flash? Will Toshiba grow its enterprise HDD share? Are we looking to see PernixData support Hyper-V? Is EMC looking to replace stabilising, even declining VMAX/VNX revenues with an XtremIO/DSSD/ScaleIO triple decker sandwich?

To find out the answer to these thrilling storage questions just keep reading the Register, dear readers. ®


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