Gartner sees enterprise SSD-HDD revenue crossover in 2017

Flash taking over the mission-critical space and spinning disk out

Comment Gartner gnomes think revenues from enterprise sales of SSDs will exceed those from HDDs in 2017. Well, let's look into that claim.

We all know SSDs are taking over from fast disk drives as the main storage medium for primary data, and now Gartner’s esteemed number-crunchers have estimated when the two revenue lines will cross.

There’s a chart prepared by Stifel MD Aaron Rakers below showing this.

The enterprise HDD revenue line isn’t falling, though, but just flattening out. Rakers said enterprise SSD revenues will have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20 per cent in the 2015-2019 period, with the equivalent HDD CAGR being four per cent.

This reflects the point that raw per-GB flash costs are higher than the per-GB fast disk drive cost. Rakers points out a view of Seagate’s that “the enterprise SSDs should not be considered cannibalistic to mission-critical HDDs".

This El Reg writer thinks that view is, well, nuts. Rakers is doubtful too, pointing out “sub-1TB enterprise capacity shipped declined to the lowest quarterly shipment level in C3Q15 (third quarter calendar 2015) seen since C3Q12".

Gartner_Enterprise_SSD-HDD_revenues crossover

As more flash foundry capacity comes on stream and 3D NAND drives down costs compared with 2D NAND we would expect the enterprise HDD primary data market to experience a downturn, to start spinning down.

Disk latency sucks compared with flash access speed, and there’s nothing any disk drive maker can do to remedy that fact, except to start making and selling enterprise SSDs.

Western Digital is further along that road than the sluggish Seagate which, as it has mis-stepped in the capacity-optimised drive space – not making enough 8TB drives and not having helium-filled drive technology until the second 2016 quarter – looks to be a double laggard. ®

Broader topics

Other stories you might like

  • Running Windows 10? Microsoft is preparing to fire up the update engines

    Winter Windows Is Coming

    It's coming. Microsoft is preparing to start shoveling the latest version of Windows 10 down the throats of refuseniks still clinging to older incarnations.

    The Windows Update team gave the heads-up through its Twitter orifice last week. Windows 10 2004 was already on its last gasp, have had support terminated in December. 20H2, on the other hand, should be good to go until May this year.

    Continue reading
  • Throw away your Ethernet cables* because MediaTek says Wi-Fi 7 will replace them

    *Don't do this

    MediaTek claims to have given the world's first live demo of Wi-Fi 7, and said that the upcoming wireless technology will be able to challenge wired Ethernet for high-bandwidth applications, once available.

    The fabless Taiwanese chip firm said it is currently showcasing two Wi-Fi 7 demos to key customers and industry collaborators, in order to demonstrate the technology's super-fast speeds and low latency transmission.

    Based on the IEEE 802.11be standard, the draft version of which was published last year, Wi-Fi 7 is expected to provide speeds several times faster than Wi-Fi 6 kit, offering connections of at least 30Gbps and possibly up to 40Gbps.

    Continue reading
  • Windows box won't boot? SystemRescue 9 may help

    An ISO image you can burn or drop onto a USB key

    The latest version of an old friend of the jobbing support bod has delivered a new kernel to help with fixing Microsoft's finest.

    It used to be called the System Rescue CD, but who uses CDs any more? Enter SystemRescue, an ISO image that you can burn, or just drop onto your Ventoy USB key, and which may help you to fix a borked Windows box. Or a borked Linux box, come to that.

    SystemRescue 9 includes Linux kernel 5.15 and a minimal Xfce 4.16 desktop (which isn't loaded by default). There is a modest selection of GUI tools: Firefox, VNC and RDP clients and servers, and various connectivity tools – SSH, FTP, IRC. There's also some security-related stuff such as Yubikey setup, KeePass, token management, and so on. The main course is a bunch of the usual Linux tools for partitioning, formatting, copying, and imaging disks. You can check SMART status, mount LVM volumes, rsync files, and other handy stuff.

    Continue reading

Biting the hand that feeds IT © 1998–2022