This article is more than 1 year old

Quantum computing to grow by 50 per cent per year until 2027, when revenue will still be chump change

IDC reckons industry will be worth $8.6B a year – or about a quarter of one Dell quarter

Don't rush to convert your analog computing skills into the quantum realm – analyst firm International Data Corporation (IDC) reckons that in 2027 the annual market for quantum computing globally will still only be worth $8.6 billion. Which sounds like a lot, but really isn't.

While the firm predicts quantum tech will grow fast in coming years – it predicts CAGR of 50 per cent between now and 2027 – even that rapid growth will leave the industry's annual revenue somewhat modest. By way of comparison, Dell's most recent quarterly revenue figure was $28.4 billion – most of it made selling boring old classical computers.

Investments in the quantum computing market – including those made both privately and publicly – are estimated to grow at a six-year CAGR (2021–2027) of 11.3 per cent to almost $16.4 billion by the end of the six-year period. That's about twice what the entire quantum industry's annual revenue is expected to hit the same year.

"Like any breakthrough technology of the last few decades, the industry will pour billions of dollars into making the technology commonplace and ready for mass adoption," reports IDC.

The analyst firm reckons 2021 is a "pivotal year" for the industry, as this is the time that vendors are making significant efforts to define quantum computing roadmaps, find new funding opportunities or partner up – all to prime their "quantum ecosystem" for the day it pays off down the road.

IDC's analysts and researchers offer key advice about priming organizations for their "quantum journey" – and preparation is key. Being ready for a quantum ecosystem will undoubtedly have later payoffs – just don't expect them to be huge a mere five years hence.

When markets are new, small change makes for impressive results – like a New Year's resolution to start exercising that makes the first journey off the couch an infinite improvement on previous lack of efforts. Rapid growth for quantum computing is therefore to be expected. How long it will take to produce something sleek and eye-catching – rather than just sweat and effort – remains uncertain. ®

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