Most Metaverse business projects will be dead by 2025
McKinsey forecasts market value of $5 trillion by 2030, Citi says up to $13 trillion, but Canalys doesn't agree
Canalys Channels Forum The metaverse is a solution looking for a B2B problem – that problem being how to help Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg drum up billions of dollars in revenues – and it's going to fail in the not-too-distant future.
That is if you believe the good folk at Canalys, who are seemingly already buffing a gravestone for Zuck's version of the internet that we recently pointed out nobody really wants.
"Is the metaverse the next digital frontier or an overhyped money pit?" asked Matthew Ball, chief analyst at Canalys, at the company's Channels Forum in Barcelona.
"Tens of billions of dollars have already been invested, costs and delays to Meta's own progress is a barometer."
As he pointed out, the world is entering more troubled economic times and some households are struggling to cope with financial outlay in the actual world.
"We're in a cost-of-living crisis, people are struggling in the real world let alone in the virtual world to be able to invest in property and items and other NFTs," Ball added.
Gaming may take off, he conceded, and "I'm led to believe there's a target audience for adult entertainment, perhaps" but as for the business sector? Nope.
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Microsoft, Meta, Google, Nvidia, Apple, Autodesk, and more tech firms are plowing funds into the platform. Consultants at McKinsey say an eye-watering $177 billion has been invested in the metaverse since 2021. It thinks the market could be worth up to $5 trillion by 2030. Soothsayers at Citi are even more bullish, projecting the metaverse economy to be worth between $8 trillion and $13 trillion by the same year.
Gartner reckons that by 2026, a quarter of the world will spend at least one hour a day in the metaverse shopping, working, socializing or learning. And 30 percent of organizations will have products or services ready for the digital realm.
Marty Resnick, research veep at the analyst, said: "Enterprises will have the ability to expand and enhance their business models in unprecedented ways by moving from a digital business to a metaverse business."
However, he cautioned that "it is still too early to know which investments will be viable in the long term, but product managers should take time to learn, explore and prepare for a meta verse in order to position themselves competitively."
Asked about short-term expectations for the metaverse driving business sales, Mike Norris, colorful CEO at Computacenter, one of Europe's largest tech resellers, said: "I'm making money now, whether I make it in four, five or six years will be interesting but in the next few years I'll make a fortune."
"The infrastructure requirement is enormous, and there is a company called Meta that will buy more than $1 billion off me this year. That'll do," he said.
Ball said he expects most projects in the business space to be closed by 2025. ®