What might a second term of Trump mean for the US space program?

Moon, Mars, and Mayhem?

President-elect Donald Trump is set to return to the US White House. What does this mean for the US space program, NASA, and a return to the Moon?

"Trump is such an unpredictable person," said Garry Hunt, one of the original Voyager scientists, when considering possible scenarios.

As far as human spaceflight is concerned, not much is expected to change in the short term, particularly regarding NASA's Artemis program, which aims to land a crew on the Moon. While the Space Launch System (SLS), consisting of an expendable rocket carrying the Orion capsule, might seem like a throwback to a previous era and potentially subject to scrutiny by an Elon Musk-favoring administration, the way it is constructed means it is unlikely to be dropped any time soon.

After all, it would take a brave politician to remove lucrative government contracts from a US state or district without having a replacement lined up and risk the wrath of lawmakers.

Instead, the return of Donald Trump could result in NASA's long dreamed of "return to the Moon" becoming reality rather than being delayed further. Trump, after all, was a major force behind what has become known as the Artemis program, and NASA is set to land a crew on the lunar surface during his second term in office. He is also staunchly supported by Musk, who will be expecting official scrutiny over the rocket projects of his company, SpaceX, to be reduced.

NASA depends on SpaceX's Starship to land humans on the Moon for Artemis III, and licensing and environmental challenges have bedeviled Musk's rocketeers over the years. A change in regulatory oversight could allow SpaceX to increase the pace of Starship development, ready for the spacecraft to be pressed into service by NASA for a lunar landing.

It is also likely that a perceived threat from China to US leadership in space will be a factor in NASA funding for a return to the Moon and retrieval of samples from Mars. However, a dramatic boost is unlikely, considering the current economic situation. At least some of the cash may come from cuts to Earth science missions and anything related to observations or research into a changing climate.

Then there are NASA's international partners, such as the European Space Agency. In 2019, ESA's then Director General, Jan Wörner, remained aloof from a US determination to land humans on the Moon by 2024, saying only that the agency's lunar effort was "proceeding the way it should" and that astronauts were unlikely to be bounding around on the Moon by then.

Wörner has been proven right, but it appears that Donald Trump will be in office when US boots stand on the lunar surface once again.

Being a significant supplier to NASA, Musk's ability to influence major changes at the agency is limited in the short term without accusations of a conflict of interest. SpaceX has contracts for crew and cargo to the International Space Station (ISS), a contract for deorbiting the ISS at the end of its life, and work lined up for NASA's return to the Moon.

That said, with SpaceX planning to send a Starship to Mars before long, it would be difficult for NASA to justify a convoluted robotic mission to the red planet for retrieving samples when an alternative is set to exist. In October, NASA announced that it would be assessing new proposals for the Mars Sample Return architecture, which include ideas from SpaceX, with a report "anticipated by the end of 2024."

Trump is hellbent to go to Mars, and most of us sane people know it ain't on guys

While science appears set to suffer under a new administration, the commercial space market is likely to benefit. Amazon's Jeff Bezos did not take a strong position during the US election campaign, and it would be difficult not to imagine him benefitting despite a rivalry with Musk. While much has been made of Musk's satellite constellation, Starlink, a more relaxed regulatory regime could assist competing systems, such as the impending Project Kuiper.

Hunt told El Reg, "Trump is hellbent to go to Mars, and most of us sane people know it ain't on guys, not with humans. You can go to Mars, but you've got to do it robotically.

"I think this is an issue that has got to be thought through."

As for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is responsible for high-profile scientific missions such as Voyager, Hunt described the atmosphere as "nervous."

He said, "I think they're probably in a state of shock."

Although directed by the US administration, NASA has historically attempted to remain relatively non-partisan. Its missions, after all, tend to outlast administrations. An extreme example, Voyager, has sailed on for almost half a century while political upheavals have occurred on Earth.

However, it seems likely that human spaceflight and commercial interests will prosper under Trump's administration (with assistance from Musk), while science for science's sake might slip further into the background. ®