Trump's tariff threats could bump PC prices by almost half

Warning of planned hikes limit forecasts to just 2% shipment growth for US market in 2025

Import tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration could cause PC prices in the US to jump 46 percent, stifling market growth in 2025 despite the looming Windows upgrade deadline and vendors eagerness to promote AI-based computers.

This prediction comes from market watcher Canalys, which expects total PC shipments stateside to edge up 2 percent in both 2025 and 2026, after an estimated rise of 6 percent during 2024 to just under 70 million units.

In a report issued over the Christmas period, the number cruncher said laptops had been the main driver of recent growth, with shipments of these up 9 percent year-on-year during Q3 2024.

Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, it expects to see the market continue to expand, albeit at a slower rate than previously anticipated due to weaker momentum in the Windows refresh cycle and "headwinds related to macroeconomic policies."

Those headwinds include the tariffs discussed by President-elect Trump, although nobody can be entirely sure if he will actually go ahead and implement them until after his inauguration. Other factors such as potential federal spending cuts could also throw hinder PC sales, said Canalys.

"With the 2024 US Presidential election coming to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near term as they have been over the last year or two," Canalys analyst Greg Davis stated. "With reports of import tariffs seemingly on the horizon, the PC market will likely be impacted in a noticeable way."

Davis referred to a recent study by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) that suggests the proposed tariffs would result in price rises for laptops and tablets of as much as 46 percent. Signals from the supply chain suggest there could be some stockpiling of inventory in early 2025 as distributors try to get ahead of the anticipated rise in prices, he claimed.

"A longer-term risk factor stems from the proposed public sector budget cuts, both for federal government and education procurement of PCs," added Davis. "Although 2025 budgets will remain largely intact, we anticipate future spending on technology from these areas could be reduced."

This is despite earlier predictions that the industry was set to enjoy a hardware upgrade boom, driven by the impending cutoff date for Windows 10 support of October 14 and the desire of corporations to refresh their fleet with AI PCs, rather than risk being left behind by their rivals.

Some customers were already wavering over a major replacement purchase because of confusion over exactly what constitutes an AI-capable box, as well as the premium price tag carried by these systems.

Some estimates already put the average cost of an AI PC at between 5 and 15 percent higher than traditional kit, which led a senior Gartner analyst to conclude last year that something would have to give, most likely on the pricing side.

Davis said that even though a commercial refresh powered by Windows 11 is set to gather some strength, it still has a way to go.

"While Microsoft and its partners will work to improve the overall awareness of the Windows 10 end-of-life throughout 2025, we expect a sizable portion of fleet refreshes will happen after the end of service date," he predicted.

"This is due to the relatively modest pace of the transition so far, especially given that a large portion of the current installed base remains on Windows 10 just 10 months out from the October 2025 deadline."

However, he added that both large and small businesses had begun showing stronger PC fleet refresh activity, and robust seasonal discounting around Black Friday and Cyber Monday last year could push up the final shipment figures for Q4 2024. ®