Tesla's numbers disappoint again ... and the crowd goes wild ... again

Boy who's cried wolf on autonomous driving for years swears 'there's a damn wolf this time'

Tesla had a pretty dismal fourth-quarter of 2024 and a rough year overall, financially. But you wouldn't know it from the after-hours boost to its share price as CEO Elon Musk predicted a record 2025 buoyed by yet more promises of fully autonomous robotaxis.

The EV maker missed analyst expectations on earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in calendar Q4, the three months to December 31, reporting an eight percent year-on-year decline in revenue and a 71 percent plunge in profit. Income from operations fell to $1.6 billion, down from $2.1 billion in Q4 2023. Net income plummeted from $7.9 billion in Q4 2023, when it was inflated by a one-time tax benefit, to $2.3 billion at the end of 2024.

Automotive revenue also slid eight percent YoY, and even a massive 113 percent surge in energy generation and storage revenue - from $1.4 billion in Q4 2023 to $3.1 billion in Q4 2024 - couldn't offset the losses.

But, hey - unsupervised, fully autonomous Tesla robotaxis are allegedly coming to Austin, Texas, in June, and will be "in many regions of the US by the end of the year," Musk claimed. Again. Just like he always does, distracting people from the bad news. Even he knows it.

"Some of these things I've said for quite a long time, and I know people have said, 'Well, Elon, the boy who cried like a wolf [sic] like several times,'" Musk said on a conference call with financial analysts Wednesday. "But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it."

Uh-huh; anything to prop up those stock prices.

And it seems to have worked, at least temporarily. Tesla shares popped in after-market trading following Tesla's earnings call before falling this morning. Maybe a good night's sleep weakened that reality distortion field a bit?

Musk made several bold claims about Tesla's "full" self-driving (FSD) capabilities in 2024 – entirely computer-controlled driving – touting it as "a generalized AI solution" that operates without maps and will function seamlessly beyond Austin. "This is not some far-off mythical situation," Musk claimed. "It's literally five, six months away." 

The reason Tesla is starting slowly, despite allegedly having an FSD system capable of powering autonomous robotaxis "with no one in them," is because of the regulators, of course. 

"We just want to put our toe in the water, make sure everything is OK, then put a few more toes in the water, then put a foot in the water with safety of the general public and those in the car as our top priority," Musk said. "Our constraints, I think it's likely to be just regulatory."

That's going to be painful and difficult but we'll get it done

Regulators aren't actually the only reason FSD may take longer to roll out than Tesla is claiming, though: Most of the automaker's vehicles on the road are still outfitted with Tesla's Hardware 3 (HW3) "full" self-driving computer, which Musk admitted on the call would likely have to be replaced for customers that purchased the Tesla FSD package and are expecting to get access.

Tesla vehicles produced between 2017 and 2023 generally contain HW3, with the latest hardware, known as AI4, began rolling out in 2023, with the exact time depending on the model. Everyone with a HW3 Tesla is going to need their computer replaced, Musk said.

"The honest answer is that we're going to have to upgrade people's Hardware 3 computer for those that have bought full self-driving," Musk said. "That's going to be painful and difficult but we'll get it done."

"Now I'm kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package," Musk added, providing a clue into how well Tesla FSD has actually done for the business.

Robotic

Along with his perennial self-driving claims, Musk also used Optimus to deflect from the fact that his car company is shrinking, for some mysterious reason, saying that he expected the humanoid robot to bring in "north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it's really bananas."

"There is no company in the world that is as good in real-world AI as Tesla," Musk claimed. "I don't even know who's in second place."

That amazing AI lead, coupled with Musk's claims that Optimus Version 2 would launch "sometime next year" with a production line designed to make 1,000 bots a month, could push Tesla toward becoming the most valuable company in the world – by a lot, according to Musk. 

"I'm not saying it's an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far … worth more than the next top five companies combined," Musk asserted. "That is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots."

In other words, two things that Tesla has yet to make good on despite years of promises.

Elon Musk giving that salute at Trump's 2025 inauguration

Elon Musk demonstrating how he'd signal an autonomous Tesla to stop, at Trump's 2025 inauguration ... Click for source

It's also worth putting that "more valuable than the next top five companies combined" claim into perspective. Tesla is currently the eighth largest company in the world by market cap; $1.3 trillion in its case. If it were going to become the most valuable company in the world, it would need to eclipse Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet, which have a combined market cap of nearly $15 trillion.

That's a hefty promise from the world's richest person, who has separately vowed to make the American federal government smaller and allegedly more efficient through cost cutting under Trump.

We note that years of missed deadlines, the self-inflicted slow-motion collapse of Twitter, sowing political discord in the US, UK and EU, and more head-in-hands moments haven't sunk Musk or Tesla yet. Given all that, it's unlikely more wild claims on an earnings call will do much either. ®

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