Odds of city-killer asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth creep upward

It's probably fine

As the risk corridor narrows for asteroid 2024 YR4, the possibility of a collision with Earth in 2032 has increased.

NASA has upped the chances to 3.1 percent, while the European Space Agency (ESA) now estimates it's 2.8 percent. This was expected as the close-approach uncertainty narrowed with further observations. The threat will be recalculated as possible trajectories are ruled out and the risk corridor shrinks.

Crucially, time is growing short. By April, the city-killing asteroid will no longer be viewable by most telescopes, making it impossible for scientists to refine the object's orbit further. It will not come back into view again until 2028.

Although the probability of collision is still very small, and observatories such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) are being pressed into service to refine estimates of the size and mass of the asteroid, space agencies will no doubt ponder how best to deflect it should the worst-case scenario – a high-energy impact – become more likely.

Scientists calculating trajectories and devising potential asteroid-defense missions will also not welcome distractions – such as NASA's recently reported plans to terminate more than 1,000 probationary employees, which was swiftly reversed yesterday.

It seems likely that the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4, said to be up to 90 meters wide, colliding with Earth will continue to increase in the short term, at least, as the uncertainty region closes. With luck, the precariousness surrounding at least one space agency will also have been cleared up before long. ®