70-knot winds so far blamed for yacht disaster that killed Brit tech tycoon Mike Lynch

Probe indicates it was all over for Bayesian in just 9 minutes

An interim report by the UK's Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) has indicated that extreme wind was to blame for the sinking of the yacht Bayesian, claiming the lives of UK tech tycoon Mike Lynch, his daughter, and five others.

The founder of search software biz Autonomy was reported missing after the 56-metre luxury yacht sank off the coast of Sicily on August 19 last year. The 59-year-old's body was found two days later. The tragedy came just weeks after Lynch was acquitted in the US of criminal fraud and conspiracy charges relating to the acquisition of Autonomy by what was then Hewlett Packard (HP) in 2011.

The report [PDF] states that studies into the yacht have calculated that if wind was blowing directly onto Bayesian's beam and the vessel was in the "motoring" condition – with sails lowered on its massive 75-metre mast and the stabilizing centreboard (aka the swing keel) raised – a gusting wind in excess of 63.4 knots would "likely result in the vessel capsizing, irrespective of any interactions and blanketing effects."

At the time of the ship's foundering, it was reported that the wind speed had suddenly increased to more than 70 knots due to an approaching storm. The timeline established by the interim report shows how quickly it happened, with Bayesian starting to drag its anchor at 03:57 local time and violently heeling over to starboard at 0406 – just nine minutes later.

In a statement, MAIB Chief Inspector Andrew Moll OBE said: "The interim report presents a desktop study of the facts as we know them. The study has reviewed the yacht's stability, the likely local weather conditions at the time, and the effect of that weather on the yacht. The findings indicate that the extreme wind experienced by Bayesian was sufficient to knock the yacht over. Further, once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70°, the situation was irrecoverable."

However, the report also notes that investigation is ongoing, and that an examination of the wreck of the yacht, when salvaged, should provide a better understanding of the yacht's actual condition at the time of loss, and validate or improve the theoretical assessment already conducted.

The report states that until the investigative work is complete and the final report is published, these interim findings should be considered indicative, not conclusive.

Lynch was not the only one onboard: His daughter Hannah, 18, was among the dead.

Although Lynch and Autonomy's former VP of finance, Stephen Chamberlain, were both cleared of unlawfully inflating the company's value prior to its acquisition in a US court case, HP's successor, HPE, has indicated it will pursue Lynch's estate for $4 billion in damages it sought from him following an earlier UK civil trial in 2022 that found in favor of the company's claims.

HPE chief exec Antonio Neri defended this move, saying the company has to pursue its multi-billion claim against Mike Lynch's estate because it is "in the best interest of shareholders."

Chamberlain died last August after being hit by a car while out running on August 17, two days before Lynch was killed. ®