Windows 11 market share stalls ahead of Windows 10 cutoff

Microsoft's latest and greatest still lags behind predecessor as time runs out

User adoption of Windows 11 is slowing down, with the operating system still lagging behind Windows 10 as end of support nears.

After an impressive start to 2025, the last few months have not seen the market share of Windows 11 expand, according to Statcounter. After cresting the 40 percent mark by March, figures released at the start of June put the operating system's slice of the pie at 43.22 percent. The previous month, it was 43.72 percent.

In comparison, Windows 10's market share currently stands at 53.19 percent, slightly up on the previous month's 52.94 percent.

Considering that only a few months remain before Microsoft pulls support for many versions of Windows 10, the apparent stall of Windows 11's adoption is a trend that must cause some consternation at Microsoft.

Kieren Jessop, a research manager at industry watcher Canalys, reckoned that, on average, things were still progressing as forecast, with the "big bump" between February and March throwing off expectations.

Jessop told El Reg: "Prior to and during the tariff chaos we saw a huge uptick in inventory in the US." The impact of this is that Windows 11 now occupies the majority of Windows desktops in the US, according to Canalys.

"Elsewhere, the transition is progressing around the rate we forecast. Globally, we're expecting between 0.5 and 1.5 percent uplift in Windows 11 every month through to October. Of course, this rate is higher in the more developed markets."

Jessop added: "Enterprises often migrate in waves. Lots of fiscal years are starting in July or October, so I think we'll see some big bumps then."

For Windows-only devices, Canalys forecast 8.1 percent growth in the US for commercial shipments in 2025 and 6.4 percent globally. It expects to see -2.5 percent growth in consumer shipments in the US in 2025 and -0.7 percent globally.

Fear of tariffs was one factor contributing to a surge in PC shipments during the first quarter of 2025, and the bump in market share figures lends credence to the theory that US buyers snapped up devices to avoid tariff-induced price rises. ®