Trump tariff turmoil hurting global smartphone market, but hitting US hardest

Stale designs and market maturation aren't helping either, says Counterpoint Research

World War Fee The Trump administration's chaotic tariff regime is likely to have a serious impact on the smartphone market worldwide, but the latest forecasts predict the disruption will be felt most keenly in the one economy Trump is trying to protect: The United States. 

Analyst Counterpoint Research revised its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025 on Wednesday, moving the needle down to 1.9 percent year-over-year growth from a previously forecast 4.2 percent. Counterpoint cited "renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs" as the reason for the decline - the same justification that last week led IDC to similarly clip its growth forecast to 1.9 percent from the earlier 3.3 percent. 

Two markets in particular are being pummeled by the chaos surrounding Trump's on again, off again, court-frozen and allowed on appeal tariff regime: North America, where smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 3 percent this year, and China, where growth is expected to be flat. 

Counterpoint forecast growth - albeit more muted - to continue outside of the two regions, with Europe estimated to expand shipments by 1 percent, India by 2 percent, the Caribbean and Latin America by 3 percent, and the Mid-East/Asia market by 6 percent. 

Apple and Samsung are predicted to bear the brunt of the tariff mess due to their exposure to the US market. Counterpoint expects the pair to be hit hard as tariff-related cost increases are passed along to consumers. This is contrary to what IDC predicted when it noted that the unique structure of the American smartphone market – with devices typically financed through carriers, making price increases less of an upfront issue – may mean US buyers would be less immediately affected by price hikes. 

Counterpoint says it is seeing shrinking demand for new smartphones in North America, the EU and Asia - a factor that's also contributing to lower forecasts. Senior analyst Yang Wang told The Register in an email that uncertainty due to trade tensions were causing buyers to become more cautious, though many may have already slowed their replacement cycle due to stagnating designs and the incremental nature of upgrades in new models. 

"In these advanced markets, consumers are still in a wait-and-see mode regarding what the industry believes to be the next catalyst for smartphone upgrades," Wang said, referring to new AI features that manufacturers have been pushing. "We think AI is maturing, but not to the extent that would decisively spur consumers to upgrade their devices."

Huawei comes out on top of a struggling sector

Despite flat growth in China, Counterpoint predicts that Huawei will grab market share. While some manufacturers are expected to see single-digit growth or flat global shipments in 2025, Counterpoint believes Huawei will outshine all of them with 11 percent more shipments - and that's going to be largely thanks to its standing in China.

Counterpoint associate director Ethan Qi said in the company's report that Huawei was likely to see increased sales thanks to "easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components" and a push in the mid-to-low-end device tier. 

"Our supply chain checks suggest that Huawei and its domestic component suppliers are able to resolve some scaling challenges which previously was expected to cap its future shipment growth potential," Wang told us. 

That doesn't mean Huawei has managed to defeat US sanctions in any meaningful way, mind you - Wang said the company's supply outlook may be "slightly better," but "broadly speaking supply of components remains a challenge," and Counterpoint doesn't see the company expanding into overseas markets in any considerable way in the near future. 

Wang told us China is starting to experience the same trend seen in the West: Slower sales, and a shift to a "replacement market" rather than a growth one means most folks in the country simply aren't clamoring for the newest device despite government subsidies pushing them to buy new kit. 

In other words, tariffs or not, buyers the world over are becoming increasingly content with their devices, creating another challenge for a group of companies who have been relying on hype and fear of missing out to drive consumers to purchase the newest, fanciest device. 

"Early data from April and May do not suggest that there will be a quick reversal to these market trends [of poor sales in important markets]," Wang said. 

With this is mind, the iPhone 17, Galaxy S26, Mate 80, Pixel 10 and other next-generation smartphones set to debut this year better pack a serious punch if they want to spur growth no matter what Trump decides to do to international markets. ®