SpaceX's Falcon anomaly could have serious implications for the space industry

Comment SpaceX has confirmed the payload of last week's Starlink launch is pretty much a total writeoff. However, standing down Falcon 9 as authorities look into the incident could have major implications for the space industry.

The July 11 (local time) launch from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base was the latest in an increasingly rapid cadence of launches by SpaceX. It was carrying 20 Starlink satellites. The first stage of the Falcon 9 behaved nominally, and again performed the impressive feat of landing on a droneship, making it SpaceX's 329th recovery of an orbital class rocket to date.

Things did not go so well for the upper stage. According to SpaceX, the second stage developed a liquid oxygen leak – which was clearly visible during the broadcasted stream of the launch – and when the Merlin Vacuum engine was relit to raise the perigee of its orbit, in the words of SpaceX, it "experienced an anomaly."

SpaceX boss Elon Musk was blunter and said the restart "resulted in an engine RUD." While we like a three-letter-acronym as much as the next person – a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly – it's safe to say that something probably went bang.

Musk hoped that some of the satellites could be saved, but SpaceX warned over the weekend, "the satellites will re-enter Earth's atmosphere and fully demise." With a very low perigee of 135 km, the onboard thrusters simply cannot raise the orbit before atmospheric drag pulls the Starlinks back down.

SpaceX noted that the upper stage survived the engine incident and "passivated" itself as it would normally. Passivation means taking steps to prevent explosions as it approaches Earth, such as depleting itself of pressure, etc [PDF].

After bragging about the reliability of the Falcon 9 – a fair boast, as the company has managed 364 successful Falcon launches – SpaceX said it will "perform a full investigation in coordination with the FAA, determine root cause, and make corrective actions to ensure the success of future missions."

It went on to say it was "positioned to rapidly recover."

As well it might. Much of the space industry has come to depend on SpaceX in recent years. Russian launchers are off limits following the invasion of Ukraine and the US has little in the way of alternative launch capability. United Launch Alliance (ULA) finally managed to get its Vulcan Centaur off the pad earlier this year, but is unlikely to reach SpaceX's Falcon 9 cadence in the near future. Other rockets planned for launch from US soil include Blue Origin's New Glenn and Rocket Lab's Neutron, but neither have made their maiden flight.

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The Falcon 9 is also used for crewed missions. The next was to have been the Polaris Dawn mission, which is now delayed until SpaceX is ready to resume launches. Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments, is the mission commander and said of SpaceX and the anomaly: "I have no doubt they will arrive at a cause quickly and ensure the most cost-effective and reliable launch vehicle keeps delivering payload to orbit.

"As for Polaris Dawn, we will fly whenever SpaceX is ready and with complete confidence in the rocket, spaceship and operations."

Musk thanked Isaacman and noted Falcon was tracking to do more launches this year than the Space Shuttle managed in 30. The vast majority of Falcon's missions are uncrewed.

In our mind, the challenge now facing SpaceX is comprehensively demonstrating last week's incident was an isolated one-off that can and will be identified, understood, and corrected for – and not a systemic, deep-rooted design or quality control issue showing up that imperils all future flights potentially – as the corporation ramps up its launch cadence. ®